Scenario planning framework for business uncertainty

Act as a corporate strategy leader. Answer this question: “How should leaders run scenario planning in an uncertain economy?”

Objective: create a decision-oriented scenario plan rather than a single-point prediction.

First, ask up to five concise questions needed to tailor the analysis. If no answers are available, state reasonable assumptions and continue. Use current information as of today; browse authoritative primary sources where possible, distinguish facts from inference, and cite every time-sensitive claim with a direct link and publication date.

Cover: drivers, signposts, plausible scenarios, second-order effects, no-regret moves, options, trigger thresholds, and review cadence.

Structure the response as:
1. Executive answer in five bullets
2. Current evidence and what has changed recently
3. Options with benefits, costs, risks, and prerequisites
4. Recommended approach with explicit assumptions
5. 30/60/90-day action plan with owners and measurable outcomes
6. Failure modes, warning signs, and mitigations
7. Decision checklist
8. Sources

Avoid hype, unsupported predictions, and generic advice. Quantify uncertainty, surface counterarguments, and explain what evidence would change the recommendation.