I am stuck on a tiny business forecast. I need to build a transparent cash forecast with assumptions that can be updated monthly, but my current attempt is getting vague and too big. What would you check first?
The checklist I use for a tiny business forecast
I wanted help with a tiny business forecast without pretending the model knew facts I had not provided.
First, shrink the decision. Do not solve the whole subject at once.
- Start from observed behavior.
- Write the riskiest assumption down.
- Choose a measurable next test.
Write down the result you need by the end of this session. Then choose one input you trust and make a first pass that can be checked. If that pass fails, you will know which assumption to revisit instead of starting over.
The smaller decision was the missing piece. I was asking for the whole system at once.
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